Aging Populations: A Blessing for Business
Paul Irving
Culture Notes
1 The global population age 60-and-over will encompass more than one in five human beings by mid-century, rising from 900 million in 2015 to 2.1 billion in 2050, according to the World Health Organization. As demography shifts, spiraling health costs and questions about the adequacy of public and private pension programs and retirement funds rightly stir concerns. Those issues must be addressed, of course, but there is a silver lining.
根据世界卫生组织的数据，到21世纪中叶，全球60岁及以上的人口将超过五分之一，从2015年的9亿增至2050年的21亿。随着人口结构的变化，不断攀升的医疗费用、公共和私人养老金保障和退休基金是否充裕的问题，自然引起了人们的担忧。可以肯定的是，这些问题必须得到解决，但事情也有其积极的一面。
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2 Increasing longevity has spurred unprecedented economic growth and new opportunities for personal fulfillment. Older individuals are generally healthier than their counterparts in generations past, and they seek to remain engaged and relevant as long as possible. Advances in bioscience offer the prospect of even longer, healthier and more active lives.
人们寿命的延长刺激了前所未有的经济增长，也带来了实现个人价值的新机遇。与过去几代同龄人相比，当代的老年人普遍更健康，他们尽可能让自己有事可做，与时俱进。生物科学的进步带给他们更长寿、更健康、更积极的生活前景。
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3 Aging Populations: A Dynamic Emerging Market
With growing numbers, older adults represent a dynamic emerging market and human capital resource. As markets evolve to meet their needs and aspirations, opportunities abound.
老龄人群：一个充满活力的新兴市场
由于数量越来越多，老年人代表着一个充满活力的新兴市场和人力资本资源。随着市场不断发展以满足他们的需求和愿望，机遇比比皆是。
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4 Charles Darwin recognized that survival is about adaptation to changing environments, a quality that is as imperative for businesses as it is for species. The private sector has been at the forefront of industrialization and scientific innovation, developing new markets and opening pathways for diverse stakeholders. Aging is their next frontier.
查尔斯?达尔文认识到，生存就是要适应不断变化的环境，这一特性对物种至关重要，对企业来说也是如此。私营企业一直走在工业化和科学创新的前沿，为不同的利益相关方开拓新市场、开辟新道路。老龄化将是他们的下一个前沿领域。
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5 With consumption habits and service needs distinct from those of younger adults, Americans over 50 already account for $7.6 trillion in direct spending and related economic activity annually and control more than 80 percent of household wealth, according to Oxford Economics.
根据牛津经济研究院的数据，50岁以上美国人的消费习惯和服务需求与年轻人不同，他们每年在直接支出和相关经济活动上的花费已经达到7.6万亿美元，并且掌控着80%以上的家庭财富。
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6 Global Spending Power of 60-Plus: $15 Trillion by 2020
“The Longevity Economy is redrawing economic structures, changing the face of the workforce, advancing technology and innovations, and busting perceptions of what it means to age,” states an AARP publication. And this market crosses borders. Bank of America Merrill Lynch projects that the global spending power of those age 60-plus will reach $15 trillion annually by 2020. The opportunities are only beginning.
60岁以上人群的全球消费力：2020年达到15万亿美元
美国退休者协会的一份出版物称：“‘长寿经济’正在重绘经济格局，改变劳动力的构成，推动技术和创新，打破人们对于变老的固有看法。”这个市场是跨越国界的。据美国银行美林证券预计，到2020年，60岁以上人群的全球消费能力将达到每年15万亿美元。机遇才刚刚显露。
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7 In the health sector alone, “gray is the new black,” a Reuters piece observed. A stream of new offerings in biotechnology, devices, pharmaceuticals and care services target older consumers. In Japan, robot caregivers have made a splash.
路透社的一篇报道指出，单单在保健领域来说，“灰白就是新时尚”。生物技术、设备、药品和护理服务领域的一系列新产品都是针对老年消费者的。在日本，护理机器人一度引发轰动。
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8 When it comes to housing, transportation, entertainment, food and alcohol, older people already spend a lot. Americans 60-plus are expected to account for at least 40 percent of consumption growth in those areas between 2015 and 2030.
在住房、交通、娱乐、食品和酒水方面，老年人的支出已经很庞大。预计在2015至2030年间，60岁以上人群对全美国上述领域消费增长的贡献值将超过40%。
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9 A golden age for financial services is ahead, driven by an enormous increase in household financial assets predominantly controlled by older investors. From smart homes to innovative services, from lifelong learning on campus and online to new offerings in food, transit and travel, a vast and lucrative market for new products, services and innovations awaits.
主要由老年投资者掌控的家庭金融资产出现了大幅增长。受此推动，金融服务的黄金时代即将来临。从智能家居到创新服务，从校园和线上的终身学习到食品、交通和旅游领域的新产品，一个广阔而利润丰厚的新产品、新服务和新创意的市场正等着我们。
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10 A Powerful Talent Pool for Business
But there’s more. Aging adults are not only consumers — they are our only increasing natural resource — a talent pool that can power the businesses and enhance the communities of the future. And they are ready, willing and able to be deployed. Today’s older adults seek meaning and purpose, disrupting retirement norms and expressing increasing interest in lifelong work and volunteering.
强大的商业人才库
然而还不止这些。老年人不仅是消费者，他们还是唯一一种会日益增长的自然资源──一个能够推动企业发展、提升未来社区的人才库。而且他们已经准备好，且有意愿和能力接受工作安排。当代老年人寻求人生的意义和目标，他们打破了退休生活的寻常惯例，对终生工作和志愿服务表现出越来越浓厚的兴趣。
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11 This profile defies outmoded stereotypes of senior citizens weighing down the economy. In fact, when older people actively participate, the benefits flow in all directions. They contribute experience to their workplaces and stability to the communities; financial security helps them bolster the economy as taxpayers and consumers; engagement enhances their own health and wellness. Older employees provide emotional stability, complex problem-solving skills, cautious thinking and valuable know-how. Their talents complement those of younger counterparts.
这种形象颠覆了老年人拖累经济这种陈旧的刻板印象。事实上，当老年人积极投身工作时，带来的益处是全方位的。他们为工作单位传授经验，为社区稳定作出贡献；作为纳税人和消费者，他们稳固的个人财务有助于支撑经济；他们继续工作能增进自身的身心健康。老龄员工能带来稳定的情绪、解决问题的综合技能、审慎的思考和宝贵的专业知识。他们的才能与年轻的同行们形成互补。
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12 As a widely recognized BMW experiment showed, productivity improves when work teams are intergenerational. Older workers can be mentors and serve as role models to younger colleagues. Age-diverse teams do better at problem-solving and generating ideas than same-age groups.
正如宝马公司的一项广受认可的实验所揭示的那样，当工作团队包含不同年龄段的成员时，绩效会得到提高。年长的员工可以成为较年轻同事的导师和榜样。与同年龄段成员组成的团队相比，不同年龄段成员组成的团队在解决问题和发掘创意方面会有更佳表现。
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13 The Negative Impact of Ageism
Unfortunately, ageism continues to devalue older workers and older adults across society. They too often find themselves shut out of hiring, promotions and even volunteer opportunities due to bias.
年龄歧视的负面影响
遗憾的是，各地的年龄歧视仍在贬低老年员工和老年人的价值。这些老年人经常发觉自己因偏见而被拒于聘用、晋升的门外，甚至无法获得当志愿者的机会。
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14 In the same way that other movements have changed hearts, minds and the culture itself, there’s a spreading sense that it’s time for age diversity to take center stage. Businesses can take the lead, setting examples and making positive impacts even as they focus on improving productivity and performance. They can advance smart policies and champion the needs and wants, as well as the potential, of older adults.
正如其他运动改变了人们的心灵、思想和文化本身一样，越来越多的人认为，是时候把员工年龄多样化这一观念推向舞台中央了。企业可以发挥带头作用，即使在专注于提高生产力和经营表现的同时，也能树立榜样，产生积极影响。企业可以推出明智的政策，捍卫老年人的需求和意愿，发挥他们的潜力。
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15 Testing the Leadership of CEOs
The aging megatrend will test the leadership of every CEO in the 21st century. Each corporate board should prioritize a “longevity strategy” to address the growing impact of the demographic shift. Awareness of the issues should spread to every corner of their companies. The issues are too big to ignore.
考验首席执行官的领导力
老龄化的大趋势将考验21世纪每一位首席执行官的领导力。每家公司的董事会都应优先考虑“长寿战略”，以应对人口结构变化带来的日益增强的影响。应使得公司内部人人都对这些问题有所认识。这些问题非常重要，不容忽视。
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16 In 2018, the Milken Institute Center for the Future of Aging plans to launch a Business Council, composed of senior executives in major national and multigenerational companies, to mobilize efforts and address opportunities presented by population aging, advance cooperation across sectors to improve the lives of the current generation of older adults and of generations to come.
2018年，米尔肯研究所老龄化未来中心计划组建一个商业委员会，其成员为来自雇佣多年龄段员工的全国性大公司的高管。他们拟动员各方力量，抓住人口老龄化带来的机遇，推进跨部门合作，以提升当代及未来几代老年人的生活品质。
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17 The aging population can be a blessing for business. With awareness and a new approach, businesses across the US and the world can enjoy a brighter future offering benefits both to the bottom line and the broader society.
人口老龄化对企业来说不失为一桩幸事。有了这种认识和新的举措，美国和世界各地的企业都能享有更光明的未来，这不仅能为企业赚取利润，也能更广泛地为社会带来福祉。
The Darker Side of Living to 100
Paul Higgs & Chris Gilleard
Culture Notes
1 While the aging of society has become one of the givens in today’s world, less is made of the lived experience of the very elderly in society. And although there is some suggestion that the much trumpeted steady expansion of the human lifespan has begun to slow down, the numbers of very old people continue to grow.
社会老龄化已成为当今世界的既定事实之一，但社会上却鲜有人关注高龄老人的真实生活体验。尽管有迹象表明，经大肆宣扬的人类寿命稳步延长这一趋势现已开始放缓，但高龄人口仍在持续增长。
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2 Despite this, debates about the resourcing of universal health and social care tend not to examine the costs associated with extreme aging. The problem of chronic conditions and multiple morbidities is greatest among octogenarians and nonagenarians.
尽管如此，围绕着全民健康和社会护理的资源供给而展开的种种争论却往往未能检视高龄化带来的成本。慢性病和多病并发的问题在八九十岁的老人中尤为严重。
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3 Very old age, if commented upon, is presented as if it were a kind of extreme sports competition. Centenarians are celebrated simply for reaching 100. Nonagenarians hit the news when they run a mile, climb a mountain or pilot a plane. Otherwise, silence reigns. Yet the focus of most social care is on people aged 80 and over — a group for whom care is needed because health cures have failed them.
人们论及高龄时，仿佛在说一项极限运动比赛。百岁老人收到祝贺，仅仅是因为他们活到了100岁。九旬老人跑上一英里、爬个山或驾驶一次飞机，就能成为新闻人物。其他时候，社会则保持缄默。然而，大多数社会护理的焦点是80岁及以上的老人──这一群体需要接受护理，因为医学治疗已无能为力。
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4 The morbidities and infirmities that beset the extremely aged are not so much ignored as abandoned to the efforts of medical services and social care.
困扰高龄老年人的体弱多病问题与其说是被忽视，不如说是被抛给了医疗服务和社会护理机构。
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5 At University College London, we are trying to throw some light on this darker side of aging. There are of course a number of ways that such “hyper-aging” can be approached and understood. One view celebrates the fact that more and more people can expect to live for 100 years or more. Another sees it as an apocalyptic disaster, as agedness “swamps” the resources of society needed to maintain itself. Yet another view juggles between more years of healthy active life and more years of living with disability and infirmity.
在伦敦大学学院，我们正试图揭开老龄化的灰暗面。诚然，有很多方法可以用来探讨或解释这样的“高龄化”。有一种观点认为，越来越多的人有望活到百岁以上是件好事。另一种观点则把高龄化视为世界末日般的灾难，因为它在“吞噬”社会维持自身所需要的种种资源。还有一类人在两种看法之间摇摆不定，要么认为高龄能多带来几年健康向上的生活，要么认为多活的年岁将只是机能失调、病恹恹的日子。
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6 Across the world, the burden of disease has been receding. But this is more the case for illnesses affecting younger people and those that are likely to lead to death, rather than disability. By contrast, conditions that are degenerative and disabling more often than causing death remain largely unchanged.
在全世界范围内，疾病的负担已在减轻。但这更多是对于那些影响较年轻人群的疾病以及那些可能致死的疾病而言，并非指导致失能的疾病。相比之下，那些退行性的、更致残而非致死的疾病，其情况基本没有变化。
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7 Rates of osteoarthritis, for example, which disables but does not kill you, have been rising over the last 25 years (from 213.4 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 232.1 cases per 100,000 in 2016). Rates for Alzheimer’s disease, which disables more than it causes death, have also grown but in a less pronounced manner (rising from 460.9 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 470.6 cases per 100,000 in 2016).
例如，在过去的25年间，骨关节炎这种导致失能但不致命的疾病的发病率一直在上升（从1990年的每10万人中213.4例，到2016年的每10万人中232.1例）。阿尔茨海默病造成的失能多于死亡，该病的发病率也有所上升，但增幅不那么明显（从1990年的每10万人中460.9例，上升到2016年的每10万人中470.6例）。
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8 Although some chronic conditions affecting older people, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which kills and disables you, have been falling (from 1666.8 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 945.3 cases per 100,000 in 2016), the really large falls in disease prevalence have been in conditions affecting the young, such as cases of diarrhea and related common infectious diseases, which have dropped remarkably, from 8951.2 in 1990 to 3275.6 in 2016.
虽然有些影响年长人群的慢性病，如可能导致失能或死亡的慢性阻塞性肺病，发病率一直在下降（从1990年的每10万人中1666.8例，到2016年的每10万人中945.3例），但发病率真正大幅下降的是那些影响年轻人的疾病，如腹泻和相关的常见传染病，这类疾病从1990年的每10万人中8951.2例，大幅降低到2016年的每10万人中3275.6例。
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9 In Denmark, one of the few national surveys of nonagenarians was conducted around the turn of this century. The researchers found that the majority contacted had some disability and that women were more often affected than men. The same researchers also observed that “about 10% of the octogenarians and more than 55% of the centenarians live in nursing homes, while dependency rises from approximately 30% to 70%, and the prevalence of dementia rises from approximately 7% to 50%.”
在丹麦，针对九旬老人的全国性调查屈指可数，其中有一项在世纪之交展开。研究者们发现大多数接受调查的老人都有某种失能表现，且女性比男性更常见。同一批研究人员也观察到，“约10%的八旬老人和超过55%的百岁老人住在养老院，而生活不能自理者由原来的约30%升至70%，痴呆的患病率从约7%升至50%”。
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10 In the UK, one study of 85-year-olds found a median number of five diseases per person, with more than half suffering from hearing impairment, just over half from osteoarthritis, and just under half suffering from high blood pressure. Just under a quarter had some form of cancer. Less than 5% told the researchers that their health was poor: most said it was good.
在英国，一项针对85岁老人的研究发现，他们人均罹患五种疾病，超过一半的人听力受损，略多于一半的人有骨关节炎，略低于一半的人有高血压，近四分之一的人罹患某种癌症。只有不到5%的人对研究人员表示自己的健康状况很差：大多数人声称，自己身体还不错。
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11 This last point emphasizes how extreme aging presents issues that easily go unremarked upon. Its problems are largely confined within the individual household or in care institutions. Wider society scarcely acknowledges these problems and most of those on the receiving end, whether carers or people being cared for, are simply too overwhelmed to do much about them.
这最后一条重点揭示了高龄化带来的问题是多么容易被忽视。这些问题大多发生在个人家庭或护理机构范围之内，外界几乎无从知晓。而大多数受困其中的人，无论是护理者还是被护理者，皆因不堪重负而无力改变。
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12 Although not closed off to the public, the nursing home remains more present in the imagination than in most people’s everyday experience. The social networks of the frail elderly, whether living at home or in a nursing home, tend to be so much smaller than those of the rest of the population. Most people over 80 live alone. They often have only a few people to talk with. Meantime, stories of abuse, or TV footage of the inside of the nursing home paint a grim picture to all who watch, read or hear them.
虽然养老院并未谢绝公众入内，但大多数人对养老院的认知仍停留在想象中，而不是源于日常的亲身经历。年老体弱的人，无论是居家还是在养老院，其社交圈子往往比其他人群要小得多。大多数80岁以上的老人都是独居，能与他们聊天的人寥寥无几。与此同时，有关虐待的传闻，或拍摄于养老院内的电视画面，为所有看到、读到或听到这些内容的人们描绘出了一幅令人沮丧的画面。
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13 For many old and frail people, life can be difficult. Estimates suggest that chronic pain “in people aged 85 years or older is common,” affecting the majority of people from this age group. Aged lives of quiet desperation are sadly not rare, nor are most lived in the heroic way of the marathon-running nonagenarian that hits the news.
对很多年老体衰的人来说，生活可能会很艰难。据估计，慢性疼痛“在85岁及以上的人群中颇为常见”，此年龄段的大多数人都受此困扰。遗憾的是，在寂寥的绝望中度过余生的老人不在少数，大多数人并不像新闻报道中跑马拉松的九旬老人那样过着英雄般的生活。
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14 In drawing attention to this, we are not attempting to promote further victimhood. What we hope to achieve is to cast a little light upon the darker side of our aging and of our aging societies. Old age should not be sought out just for the sake of it.
我们提请大家注意这一点并非为了促进受害者心态的形成。我们希望达成的是增进人们对老龄化和老龄化社会灰暗面的理解。不应仅仅为了长命而追求高龄。