Scientists Are Key to Making Cities Sustainable
Mark Fischetti
Culture Notes
1 You’ve heard the numbers: More than half of the world’s people now live in cities, and in just a few decades more than two thirds of the globe’s rapidly growing population will be urban. Because cities already suck up much of the planet’s resources and generate much of its waste, these trends threaten to make Earth miserable unless cities become more sustainable.
你对这些数字已有耳闻：如今世界超半数的人口居住在城市，而仅仅几十年后，全球迅速增长的人口中将有超过三分之二在城市居住。城市已经榨取了地球上的大部分资源，产生了地球上的大部分垃圾，因此，除非让城市以更加可持续的方式发展，否则这样的趋势将使地球的处境更加糟糕。
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2 Scientists could hold the key — if city leaders will invite them in as partners. “Sustainability is driven by science, technology and innovation,” said Bernard Meyerson, chief innovation officer at IBM. He was speaking at the Science and the Sustainable City summit held by Springer Nature on July 11 (2014) in Singapore. Meyerson made his case based in part on the World Economic Forum’s lists of top emerging technologies. Many of these, he noted, could directly improve urban life if city leaders bring in scientists and engineers to apply them.
科学家们可能掌握了其中秘诀──如果城市管理者愿意邀请他们一起合作的话。“可持续发展是由科学、技术和创新驱动的。”IBM首席创新官伯纳德?迈耶森说。他是在（2014年）7月11日施普林格?自然集团在新加坡举行的科学与可持续城市峰会上说这番话的。迈耶森的观点部分基于世界经济论坛推出的顶尖新兴技术榜单。他指出，如果城市管理者引入科学家和工程师来应用这些技术，其中许多技术可以直接改善城市生活。
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3 For example, cities are gathering vast amounts of real-time data, “but they don’t have good ways to understand what it might be telling them,” Meyerson noted. In London 500,000 video cameras record what is going on around town. China recently ordered two million to install in cities. These fire hoses of video data could improve everything from traffic to crime prevention, but human operators cannot possibly keep up with the information deluge or make sense of which data matter, Meyerson said. Neuromorphic technology — software that can analyze images — on each camera could do that, “and submit the data to a central repository only when it has significance. It could also erase the data locally when it does not, to help protect privacy,” he noted.
例如，城市正在收集海量的实时数据，“但他们没有好方法来理解这些数据可能说明什么问题”，迈耶森指出。在伦敦，50万个摄像头记录着城里发生的一切。中国最近订购了200万个将要安装在城市里的摄像头。迈耶森说，这些源源不断的视频数据流可以用来改善从疏导交通到预防犯罪的方方面面，但人类操作员无法对这些铺天盖地的信息进行及时处理，也无从知晓哪些数据有用处。将神经形态技术──一种可以分析图像的软件──应用于每台摄像机，就可以做到这一点。他指出“该技术只有当数据有用时，才会将其提交到中央存储库，它还可以把没用的数据在本机删除，以保护隐私。”
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4 Artificial intelligence could help cities predict infrastructure failures before they happen, preventing deaths and disasters. Using these technologies, IBM’s supercomputer Watson can predict when an elevator is approaching failure by comparing noises it makes during operation with a baseline of noises made during routine safe operation. “Cities could apply similar AI and machine learning to broader infrastructure citywide,” Meyerson said. The technology “could warn city engineers and administrators when sewage pumps are going to fail or when power outages are about to arise.” Science and scientists, he noted, underlie effective use of all these kinds of technologies.
人工智能可以帮助城市在基础设施出现故障之前作出预判，从而预防死亡和灾难。利用这些技术，IBM的超级计算机沃森可以将电梯运行时发出的噪声与日常安全运行时发出的基线噪声进行对比，以此来预测电梯何时将会发生故障。迈耶森说：“城市可以将类似的人工智能和机器学习更广泛地应用到全市范围的基础设施中。”这项技术“可以在污水泵即将发生故障或即将停电时，向城市工程师和管理人员发出预警”。他指出，科学和科学家是有效利用所有这些技术的重要条件。
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5 Arron Wood, deputy Lord Mayor of Melbourne, Australia, confirmed Meyerson’s view. Scientists have already helped his city design and deploy a system of stormwater holding tanks that have lessened flooding during heavy rainstorms and also provided water during the dry periods that prevail most of the year. Researchers have helped Melbourne set up science-based targets for annual carbon dioxide emissions that will allow it to gradually become a zero-emissions city.
澳大利亚墨尔本市副市长阿伦?伍德证实了迈耶森的观点。科学家们已经帮助墨尔本市设计和部署了一个雨水蓄水池系统，该系统减少了暴雨期的洪涝灾害，也能在占一年中大部分时间的干旱期为该市供水。研究人员帮助墨尔本制定了科学性的二氧化碳年度排放目标，使其能逐步发展为一个零排放城市。
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6 Much more could be done. Researchers are now helping Melbourne expand its forest cover — the proportion of the municipality shaded by trees — from 22 to 40 percent. The increase, Wood said, could lower the city’s heat island effect (added warmth due to buildings and roads absorbing and reemitting heat) by 4 degrees Celsius. “The trees will make the city look good,” Wood said, “but they will also prevent hundreds of deaths from heat stress, lessen fires, reduce violent crimes (which go up when air temperatures get very high), and even help the economy — because fewer people come into the city when it gets too hot.” Lena Chan, senior director of international biodiversity conservation at the National Parks Board of Singapore, added robust research shows more greenery also improves people’s physical and psychological well-being, helping a city to be healthy and productive.
能做的还不止这些。研究人员目前正在帮助墨尔本将其森林覆盖率（市内被树木遮蔽的比例）从22%提升到40%。伍德说，这一升幅可以将气温降低4摄氏度，从而减弱城市热岛效应（由于建筑物和道路吸收并重新散发热量而增加的热度）。“树木会让城市赏心悦目,”伍德说，“还可以防止数百人因热应激而死亡，减少火灾，减少暴力犯罪（气温飙升时，暴力犯罪也相应增多），甚至能促进经济发展──因为当城市太热时，进城的人就少了。”新加坡国家公园局国际生物多样性保护高级主管莉娜?陈补充说，已有确凿的研究结果表明，更多绿植还能改善人们的身心健康，促使城市健康发展、充满活力。
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7 Despite some successes, Wood said city administrators and scientists do not work together enough and also do not necessarily work well together. There is a gap in how the groups communicate and operate. “We don’t exactly work hand in glove.” David Wallerstein, chief exploration officer at the Chinese firm Tencent, said the same is true of innovators: “Cities and entrepreneurs don’t communicate well.” The issue, Wallerstein said, is that “cities do not explain well their top priorities — what they most want to solve.” Or they do not have a city leader who is clearly running the effort on each of the priorities. So scientists and entrepreneurs are either not aware of exactly what cities may need or who to approach if they think they may have a potential solution.
尽管已取得了一些成果，但伍德表示，市政官员和科学家之间的合作还不够，也不一定能很好地合作。双方在如何沟通和运作方面存在差距。他说：“我们的合作算不上密切。”中国腾讯公司的首席探索官戴维?沃勒斯坦说，和创新人士的合作也是如此：“城市和企业家之间沟通不畅。”沃勒斯坦说，问题在于“城市没有明确其首要任务──即他们最想解决什么问题”。或者，他们没有一位对每个首要任务明确负责的城市领导。因此，科学家和企业家要么不清楚城市可能需要什么，要么当他们认为可能有某个潜在的解决方案时，却不知道该找谁。
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8 Several of the speakers at the summit suggested fixes for this communication problem. Xuemei Bai, a professor of urban environment and human ecology at Australian National University, suggested cities create a paid position of chief science officer who can be a conduit for researchers who have intriguing ideas. Wood noted administrations can co-fund program chairs at universities in sustainability research areas. There was general agreement that cities can create forums and meetings for planners and researchers to talk about sustainability issues cities want to solve and to jump-start trial projects.
峰会上的几位发言人都提出了解决这一沟通问题的建议。澳大利亚国立大学城市环境与人类生态学教授白雪梅建议，城市应设立一个带薪首席科学官的职位，为有新奇想法的研究人员提供交流渠道。伍德指出，行政部门可以联合资助大学可持续发展研究领域的项目负责人。与会者一致认为，城市可以组织论坛、召开会议，让城市规划师和研究人员探讨城市希望解决的种种可持续性发展问题，并启动一些试点项目。
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9 Wood also said scientists and their universities should try to find ways to speed up research timelines. The work can take a long time, which cities do not have. Bai said academics need to close a gap in sustainability science, too. “We need to build a more systematic approach to urban research and practice.” For example, instead of working in silos on urban vegetation, water and infrastructure, “we need to integrate them. We have to find a way to see cities as a complex system.” Then scientists can do a better job of connecting their work to policymaking.
伍德还表示，科学家及他们所在的大学应想方设法加快研究进度。研究工作可能耗时良久，而城市的发展却刻不容缓。白教授说，学术界也需要填补可持续发展科学方面的空白。“我们需要建立一种更系统的方式来进行城市研究和实践。”例如，我们不能在城市绿化、供水和基础设施等方面各自为政。“我们需要将这些整合起来。我们必须找到一种把城市视为一个复合体系的方法。”这样，科学家就可以更好地将自己的工作与政策制定结合起来。
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10 Amidst all the discussion of scientific innovation, Meyerson reminded the summit crowd that social innovation is also needed to make cities more sustainable: “We cannot have a growing gap between the haves and have-nots — it is not ethical, and it is certainly not sustainable.” Science, community and policy need to be connected, the summit attendees agreed. “We have to inject social science into sustainability science,” Wood said, “because ultimately, cities are about people.”
在所有这些关于科学创新的讨论中，迈耶森提醒峰会与会者，要让城市更具可持续性，社会创新不能少：“我们不能让贫富差距越来越大──这不合乎道德，这样的发展也肯定不是可持续的。”与会者一致认为，科学、社区和政策需要相互配合。“我们必须将社会科学注入可持续发展科学中，”伍德说，“因为归根结底，城市应以人为本。”
Cities Need to Prepare for Water Day Zero
Culture Notes
1 Earlier this year ominous headlines blared that Cape Town, South Africa, was headed for Day Zero — the date when the city’s taps would go dry because its reservoirs would become dangerously low on water. That day — originally expected in mid-April, 2018 — has been postponed several times, thanks to water rationing and a welcome rainy season. But the conditions that led to this desperate situation will inevitably occur again, hitting cities all over the planet.
今年早些时候，有些新闻标题大肆渲染一则不祥消息，说南非的开普敦即将遭遇“零水日”──这一天，城市的水龙头将断水，因为水库的水量会下降到警戒位。多亏实施了限量供水，又喜迎雨季，原本预计会在2018年4月中旬到来的这一天已经几番推迟。然而，导致这种危急情况的因素将不可避免地再次出现，影响全球的城市。
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2 As the climate warms, extreme droughts and vanishing water supplies will likely become more common. But even without the added impact of climate change, normal rainfall variation plays an enormous role in year-to-year water availability. These ordinary patterns now have extraordinary effects because urban populations have had a tremendous growth spurt: by 2050 the United Nations projects that two thirds of the world’s people will live in cities. Urban planners and engineers need to learn from past rainfall variability to improve their predictions and take future demand into account to build more resilient infrastructure.
随着气候变暖，极端干旱和供水的日渐枯竭可能会变得更加常见。但即使没有气候变化的额外影响，正常的降雨量变化也会对年际同比的可用水量产生巨大影响。这些原本普通的降雨模式对于现在的影响非比寻常，因为城市人口已出现巨大的井喷式增长：联合国预测，到2050年，全球三分之二的人口将生活在城市。城市规划师和工程师需要从过去的降雨量变化中吸取经验，改进预测并考虑未来的需求，以建设更具适应性的基础设施。
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3 How did Cape Town get into a Day Zero situation? The city gets its water from six reservoirs in Western Cape province, which usually fill up during the rainy season, from May through August. But since 2015 the region has been suffering from the worst drought in a century, and the water in those reservoirs dwindled perilously. Compounding the problem, Cape Town’s population has grown substantially, increasing demand. The city actually did a pretty good job of keeping demand low by reducing leaks in the system, a major cause of water waste, and has even won awards for its conservation policies. But the government of South Africa was slow to declare a national disaster in the areas hit hardest by the drought, paving the way for the recent crisis.
开普敦是如何陷入“零水日”这一境地的？该市从西开普省的六个水库取水，这些水库通常在5月至8月的雨季将水蓄满。但自2015年以来，该地区遭遇了百年一遇的严重旱情，水库的水量减少到了危险程度。更糟糕的是，开普敦的人口一直大幅增长，用水需求也随之攀升。实际上，该市在降低用水需求方面颇有建树，他们减少了供水系统的渗漏──渗漏是造成水资源浪费的一个主要因素。该市甚至还因节约用水的政策获得嘉奖。但是，南非政府拖延许久才在受旱情影响最严重的地区宣布发生全国性灾难，此举为最近这一危机埋下了隐患。
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4 Cape Town is not alone. Since 2014 southeastern Brazil has been suffering its worst water shortage in 80 years, resulting from decreased rainfall, climate change, poor water management, deforestation and other factors. And many cities in India do not have access to municipal water for more than a few hours a day, if at all. For example, the city of Shimla ran out of drinking water in May, prompting locals to beg tourists to stay away from the popular Himalayan summer retreat. The water infrastructure in many Indian cities is old and leaky, but city governments have not repaired it. Municipalities have, however, given free electricity to farmers for irrigation, depleting local groundwater stocks.
开普敦并非孤例。自2014年以来，由于降雨量减少、气候变化、水资源管理不善、森林砍伐及其他因素，巴西东南部遭遇了80年来最严重的水资源短缺。在印度，许多城市每天只有几小时能用上市政供水，甚至完全用不上。例如，5月份，西姆拉市的饮用水告罄，这迫使当地人央求游客远离这个倍受青睐的喜马拉雅避暑胜地。印度许多城市的供水基础设施老化、漏水，但市政府一直未曾修缮。市政当局还向农户提供免费电力用于灌溉，几乎耗尽当地的地下水储备。
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5 In the U.S., the situation is somewhat better, but many urban centers still face water problems. California’s recent multiyear drought led to some of the state’s driest years on record. Fortunately, about half of the state’s urban water usage is for landscaping, so it was able to cut back on that fairly easily. But cities that use most of their water for more essential uses, such as drinking water, may not be so adaptable. In addition to the problems that drought, climate change and population growth bring, some cities face threats of contamination. Crises such as the one in Flint, Michigan, arose because the city changed the source of its water, causing lead to leach into it from pipes. If other cities are forced to change their water suppliers, they could face similar woes.
美国的情况稍好一些，但许多城市中心区仍面临用水问题。加州近来连年干旱，致使该州出现了有记录以来最缺水的年份。好在该州的城市用水约一半用于园林绿化，所以能够较轻松地做到减少用水。但对于那些大部分供水用于饮用等更重要用途的城市来说，可能就没那么容易进行调整。除干旱、气候变化和人口增长带来的问题之外，一些城市还面临污染的威胁。比如，密歇根州弗林特市的危机就是因为该市改变了供水水源，导致铅从管道渗入水中而造成了污染。如果其他城市被迫改变供水系统，可能会面临同样的风险。
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6 Fortunately, steps can be taken to avoid urban water crises. In general, a “portfolio approach” that relies on multiple water sources is probably most effective. Cape Town has already begun implementing a number of water-augmentation projects, including tapping groundwater and building water-recycling plants. Many other cities will need to repair existing water infrastructure to cut down on leakage.
幸运的是，可以采取一些措施避免城市供水危机。一般来说，依靠多种水源的“组合拳”可能是最有效的。开普敦已经开始实施一系列的增水项目，包括开采地下水和建造水循环工厂。许多其他城市则需要修复现有的供水设施以减少渗漏。
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7 Metropolitan leaders should be thinking about meeting long-term needs rather than just about daily requirements. Planning efforts should include diverse stakeholders from the community. One major challenge is providing services to informal areas, which develop haphazardly, without any government foresight. Such regions often lack basic resources — a well-planned water supply among them.
城市的领导班子应该考虑满足长期供给的要求，而不只是解决日常之需。规划工作应该将来自社区的各方利益相关者纳入其中。一个主要的挑战是为非正规开发的区域提供服务，这些地方的发展很随意，政府没有作出任何长远规划。这类区域往往缺少基本资源，比如没有规划合理的供水系统。
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8 The global community has an opportunity right now to take action to prevent a series of Day Zero crises. If we don’t act, many cities may soon face a time when there isn’t a drop to drink.
国际社会现在有机会采取行动，防止出现一系列的“零水日”危机。如果还不行动，许多城市可能很快就会面临无滴水可饮的时刻。